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The Exeter DailyMathematical model predicts rise and fall of empires

The research, which suggests that intense warfare is the Nike Running Trainers Womens Sale evolutionary driver of large complex societies, is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). It was carried out by researchers from the University of Exeter in collaboration with University of Connecticut and the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) in the US.

The study focuses on the interaction of ecology and geography as well as the spread of military Nike Running Shoes Green And Grey

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The researchers conclude that intense warfare between societies, combined with the innovation and spread of related technologies, helps to predict when and where empires form.

emerge in some places but not others. It provides support for the idea that there are general processes shaping the broad patterns of history. Explaining historical events helps us better understand the present, and ultimately may help us predict the future."

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innovations. It predicts that selection for ultra social institutions that allow for cooperation in huge groups of genetically unrelated individuals is greater where warfare is more intense.

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The researchers used mathematical formulas to simulate warfare between societies, the spread of military technology, and socio cultural evolution.

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Researchers have developed a new mathematical model that accurately describes the evolution of ancient empires. The computer model can predict with 65% accuracy where and when the largest complex societies arose in human history.

The animation shows how the distributions of large scale societies in the mathematical simulation are remarkably similar to the historical record for each time slice over the period 1 500 BC to 1 500 AD.

The model was tested against the historical record of empire formation in Europe, Africa and Asia during 1500 BC 1500 AD. During this period horse related military innovations, including chariots and cavalry, dominated warfare across the regions.

The model predicted spread of large scale societies was very similar to the observed one; the model was able to explain two thirds of the variation in determining the rise of large scale societies.

Mathematical model predicts rise and fall Cheap Nike Shoes Womens

The modelled landscape was divided into grid cells characterised by elevation, whether or not the region had agriculture, and the type of habitat grassland or desert. The researchers compiled information from a variety of historical atlases and other sources to draw maps at 100 year intervals of all groups with an organised governance controlling territories greater than approximately 100,000 square kilometres.

Dr Tom Currie from the University of Exeter said: "In this study we examined why large, complex societies have tended to Nike Mens Shoes Clearance

of empires

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